A new Economista/Mitofsky poll for the Mexico State gubernatorial race shows Morena candidate Delfina Gómez with a slim lead over the PRI-ista Alfredo Del Mazo. The campaigns end this coming Wednesday, and the vote is on Sunday, June 4.
The poll was carried out from May 25-27, and gives Gómez a 3.5% lead over Del Mazo. According to Mitofsky, Del Mazo peaked at the beginning of May and has been losing ground, with the Morena candidate being the main beneficiary. The other two main candidates, Josefina Vázquez of the PAN and Juan Zepeda of the PRD have held steady The 1,000 person poll has a statistical margin of error of ±3.1%.
The poll probably does not reflect the May 26 announcement by the PT candidate Óscar González, who is polling at 2%, withdrawing and asking his supporters to back Gómez.
Other recent polls have shown Del Mazo with a lead, and most observers think the determining factor will be voter turnout, which has historically been 50% or less for gubernatorial elections in the state.
A new poll by El Universal gives PRI candidate Alfredo del Mazo a narrow lead over Morena candidate Delfina Gómez in the race of State of Mexico governor. PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez has slipped to fourth place — after a poor debate performance on April 25 and a lackluster campaign — while Juan Zepeda of the PRD is now in third. Most surprisingly, however, the share of voters who are undecided rose from 31% in April to 38% in May. The election is on June 4, and the second and last candidate debate is tomorrow night.
Of the candidates, Zepeda has the highest favorability rating (+37%), while Del Mazo has the highest disapproval rating (-43%).
The survey also shows that while 46% approve the performance of current PRI Governor Eruviel Ávila (vs. 41% disapproval) , 7 in 10 would like to see a change in the party controlling the state.
On the eve of the first debate between the candidates, a new Reforma poll published today showed that Delfina Gómez (Morena) and Alfredo del Mazo (PRI) continue to be tied for the lead in the Mexico State gubernatorial election, with 28-29% of the vote each. Josefina Vázquez (PAN) has slipped to 22%, while Juan Zepeda (PRD) has risen slightly to 14%. (The published results are adjusted for the 29% who are undecided.)
Gómez also leads del Mazo in almost all other indicators (“more trustworthy”, “closer to the people”, etc.), except in the category experience, where del Mazo is ahead. The Morena candidate has a much stronger favorability rating — 27% favorable vs 15% unfavorable. Only 20% of those polled view del Mazo favorably, while 37% see him unfavorably.
All five regular party candidates for Governor will participate in tonight’s 90-minute televised debate. One of the two independents (Castell) may join, while the registration of the other (Pastor) was suspended after legal challenges.
The campaigns for Governor of the State of Mexico officially kicked off just after midnight on Monday morning, with the three leading candidates holding large public meetings.
A new poll in El Financiero, shows PRI candidate Alfredo Del Mazo back in the lead with 32%, recovering from the public’s strong reaction to the January gasoline price shock. The PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota — who doesn’t really have roots in the state — is holding steady at 26%. Delfina Gómez of Morena has risen strongly to tie her, taking votes from the PRD, which continues to fade. (These percentages exclude undecided voters — 32% of those surveyed.)
In his kickoff, Alfredo del Mazo promised to make the state the safest in the country, with more security video cameras and panic buttons on public buses (the frequent target of robberies and hijackings) and to expand further social programs, including giving housewives a “pink salary.”
PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota promised to put an end to “the corrupting PRI,” and to find a place for the state’s ruling families next to the fossils in the history museum. (Edomex is one of five states where the PRI has never lost the governor’s palace.)
Morena candidate Delfina Gómez also promised to break the PRI’s monopoly in power, saying she “knew the pain of hunger. ”
All three parties are bringing the full force of their national organizations to bear — and in the case of the PRI, also the federal government. Cabinet secretaries have been in the state an average of three times per week for the past seven months, for ribbon cuttings or to give away everything from washing machines to chickens under the banner of “social assistance.”
The stakes are clearly highest for the PRI. A loss would probably be a stake in the heart for their hopes of keeping control of the government in 2018, and strip President Peña Nieto of whatever small prestige he still commands.
Sources: El Universal, Reforma, Milenio
A new Reforma poll shows the three principal contenders for Governor of the State of Mexico to be essentially tied, not including the 26% of those surveyed who are undecided.
79% say they prefer a change of governing party (the PRI has never lost control of the state), and 41% say they would never vote for the PRI — compared to 14% and 8% rejecting Morena and the PAN, respectively.
On the other hand, some 53% approve the performance of the outgoing PRI governor, Eruviel Ávila.
PRI candidate Del Mazo scores highest on the positive attribute of experience (31%) while Delfina Gómez of Morena scores highest on ‘closeness to the people’ (23%). Del Mazo also scores highest on the negative attributes of ‘steal more'(36%) and ‘govern for the powerful (40%).
A Reforma national poll finds the PRI “alone in first place” in preferences for the 2012 presidential elections. “The PRI seems to be winning support nationally, including among sectors that were averse to them in the last election … younger voters, the more highly educated, and independents,” the pollsters write. Among the general population, Enrique Peña Nieto stands head and shoulders above his rivals in the PRI. López Obrador and Marcelo Ebrard are neck and neck in the PRD (although AMLO has a wide lead among party members). In the PAN, there is no clear favorite, with Santiago Creel, Josefina Vázquez, and César Nava each commanding only modest support. (Reforma 5/30)
The PAN put forward a comprehensive reform of the Labor Law in Congress. The measures seek to increase flexibility in the labor market through secret ballots in union elections, greater union transparency, time limits on strikes, new rules on outsourcing, ability to contract workers by the hour, and greater protection for women workers, among others. Josefina Vázquez Mota, the PAN congressional leader, said the bill was a collaboration between the party and the Labor Ministry, headed by Javier Lozano. President Calderón emphasized that the bill would not amend the many specific labor rights enshrined in Article 123 of the Constitution. (Reforma 3/18, 3/19, 3/20)