The Justice in Mexico project at the University of San Diego just published “Drug Violence in Mexico,” which is the most comprehensive analysis of homicide statistics and drug-related violence I’ve seen. Excellent work by Kimberly Heinle, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, and David A. Shirk.
Some of their principal conclusions:
- After a decline in 2012-2014, homicides began to rise again in 2015 and jumped 20% in 2016. The largest increases were registered in states which have an important role in drug production or trafficking and are contested by rival organized crime groups.
- Local officials and journalists remained prime targets of violence in 2016.
- Mexico’s recent violence is largely attributable to drug trafficking and organized crime, based on characteristics such as use of high-caliber automatic weapons, torture, dismemberment, and explicit messages involving organized-crime groups. Organized crime related homicdes probably account for 25% – 40% of total homicides.
- El Chapo Guzmán’s arrest and extradition appear to be partly fueling violence. A significant portion of increases in violence in 2015 and 2016 were related to inter- and intra-organizational conflicts among rival drug traffickers in the wake of Guzmán’s re-arrest in 2016.
The arrest yesterday of Édgar Veytia, the attorney general of the state of Nayarit, by U.S. agents will cause major political damage to the PRI, both in the state and nationally. Veytia was arrested on a previously-sealed indictment on federal charges of trafficking heroin, meth, cocaine, and marijuana. The U.S. is also seeking to seize at least US$250 million in assets.
Nayarit is holding gubernatorial elections in June. The long-dominant PRI is facing a strong challenge from a PAN-PRD coalition. Veytia’s long ties to the outgoing governor, Roberto Sandoval, will hurt the PRI’s chances both there and elsewhere. (Reportedly, the federal National Security Council never required Veytia to submit to the vetting procedures required by law of all senior security officials.) The arrest and indictment appear to have been complete surprises to the Mexican government.
Veytia is alleged to be a leader of the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), which has taken over control of trafficking in Nayarit, best known for the resort of Nuevo Vallarta, from the Pacific Cartel. A dual U.S.-Mexican citizen, Veytia flew every two weeks to visit his wife and family in San Diego. Sandoval nominated Veytia to become attorney general of Nayarit in 2012, and it was at that time (according to the U.S. indictment) that the large-scale trafficking began. As attorney general, Veytia commanded the state police and controlled actions of the local police. He has been the target of allegations of ties to trafficking over the years, as well as extortion rackets that have forced the sale of prime tourism properties.
Posted in Corruption, Drug wars, Elections, Justice, Security, US-Mex relations
Tagged CJNG, Nayarit, PAN, PRD, PRI, Sandoval, Veytia
In Veracruz on Wednesday, the editor of La Opinion de Poza Rica, Armando Arrieta Granados, was shot twice just outside his home in Poza Rica, Veracruz. He is reported to be in “grave” condition in an IMSS hospital.
Also on Wednesday, a journalist covering crime stories in Los Cabos was attacked in his car. He was not injured, but his bodyguard was shot five times and killed. The writer, Julio Omar Gómez Sánchez, wrote for “911 Noticias“, an internet news source covering crime and violence. He was under official protection because of previous attacks in December 2016 and February 2017. The bodyguard, Alfredo de la Cruz, was a 50-year old former soldier, assigned by the special prosecutor’s office for crimes against freedom of speech (FEADLE).
These attacks follow on the heels of the killing of Miroslava Breach of La Jornada and El Norte in Chihuahua on March 23. Breach has written many stories on the impact of drug traffickers on the local populations in the mountains of Chihuahua. On March 19, Ricardo Monlui, a writer for El Político and El Sol de Córdoba, was gunned down in a restaurant in Yanga, Veracruz. He wrote on the condition of sugar cane workers in the state.
According to Animal Politico, the FEADLE prosecutors office has investigated the killings of 47 journalists from July 2010 through December 2016. Only three have resulted in convictions.
Sources: Letra Roja, Reuters, Animal Politico. Cartoon: Nericlon, El Economista
The general in charge of human rights for the Army responded angrily to Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s criticism of the armed forces.
Starting with statements made during his NYC trip, AMLO has accused the military of complicity in the disappearance of the 43 students from Ayotiznapa and of participation in more than 100 “massacres” ordered by Presidents Calderón and Peña Nieto. He twittered that, “When we triumph, we will no longer use the Army to repress the people.”
The Army human rights spokesman, General Beltrán said:
Anyone who has proof of human of human rights violations committed by soldiers, as some public figures have alleged, must present them.
Digging in, AMLO has countered that he commands the full support of the rank and file, and ignored the complaints of the military leadership and politicians supporting them:
It’s very clear that the soldiers are the people in uniform; they are the sons of peasants, sons of workers…. In the 2006 and 2012 elections the soldiers — the troops — voted for change, they voted for us, and they will do the same in 2018. The soldiers will support change.
Columnist Salvador García Soto notes that picking a fight with the military leadership isn’t going to benefit any candidate and, “it brings to mind the popular saying that the fish dies by its own mouth. And this just might snag López Obrador.”
(Sources: El Financiero, SPD Noticias, El Universal)
Official numbers show that Mexico set a new record for wrongful homicides in February, and that killings for the first two months of 2017 are up 29% from 2016.
The 1,838 investigations into wrongful homicides opened by the authorities in February — the preferred measure — and the 3,779 in January-February were higher than the numbers registered at the height of the Calderón government’s drug wars in 2011.
In terms for rates per 100k, the numbers are equivalent to the 2011 peak, given population growth. (See chart from Milenio.)
Security columnist Alejandro Hope observes:
January was bad. February was horrible. More than 20 victims per day — sufficient to fill a dumping ground like Colinas de Santa Fe in less than two weeks. … The principal officials in the security area continue to deny the gravity of the situation, fighting over statistics. …. In the principal decision centers there isn’t any interest in doing more than administer the disaster. … The problem, I fear, is one much more of will than of ideas or resources.”
A poll carried out by the Chamber of Deputies, which is currently debating the new internal security law, showed that almost 80% of those surveyed supported giving legal authorization for the Army and the Marines to fight organized crime.
The survey of 900 persons carried out by the Chamber’s Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion also showed some clear limitations on the powers they approved the military having.
Those surveyed said the military should:
- Be able to put down demonstrations using force: 74% NO
- Be able to carry out communications surveillance or collect personal information: 55% NO
- Be able to carry out criminal investigations: 61% YES
- Be able to take criminal complaints and testimony of criminal acts: 62% YES
The poll also showed in stark terms the difference between public confidence in the Army and the Marines lack of trust in local and state police forces, and even the Federal Police.
Reported in Milenio.
Juan José Esparragoza Monzón, aka “El Negro,” escaped from a prison in Culiacán in a mid-day jailbreak. He was on the Justice Ministry’s list of 122 top targets; his capture on January 19 was announced in a press conference by Mexico’s national security commissioner, Renato Sales. El Negro was being held pending extradition to the U.S. He is believed to be one of the top financial operators of the Sinaloa Cartel. His father “El Azul,” is one of the cartel’s top leaders–perhaps the top leader after El Chapo’s recapture last year. “El Negro” is also married to the youngest daughter of the former head of the Beltran Leyva cartel, who was killed in a high profile military operation in 2009. Source: López-Doriga.