A new Reforma poll shows the three principal contenders for Governor of the State of Mexico to be essentially tied, not including the 26% of those surveyed who are undecided.
79% say they prefer a change of governing party (the PRI has never lost control of the state), and 41% say they would never vote for the PRI — compared to 14% and 8% rejecting Morena and the PAN, respectively.
On the other hand, some 53% approve the performance of the outgoing PRI governor, Eruviel Ávila.
PRI candidate Del Mazo scores highest on the positive attribute of experience (31%) while Delfina Gómez of Morena scores highest on ‘closeness to the people’ (23%). Del Mazo also scores highest on the negative attributes of ‘steal more'(36%) and ‘govern for the powerful (40%).
For the first time, a major poll showed Morena — the party of Andrés Manuel López Obrador — rising to the top spot in preferences for the 2018 presidential election.
The Reforma poll gave Morena 27%, up 5% since December. (The poll results are adjusted for the 25% of respondents who didn’t answer or had no preference.)
Q: “If the Presidential election were today, for which party would you vote for President?”
The January 1 gasoline price hikes have crushed whatever residual popularity the government had. The latest Reforma poll showed Peña Nieto’s approval rating cut in half to a mere 12% in just one month and a corresponding increase in his disapproval rating.
Q: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Enrique Peña Nieto is doing his work as President?”
59% of those surveyed said the gasoline price hikes had affected them “a lot” and another 26% said “some.” Three out of five said they held the President responsible for the state of the economy.
A poll carried out by El Universal of the approval ratings of the governors of each state showed the wide range of opinion across the nation. The four most popular governors (led by Ortega Bernés of Campeche—86% approval vs 14% disapproval) and the least popular (Ulises Ruíz of Oaxaca—22% vs 77%) were all from the PRI. Three of the least popular were from the PAN (Ortiz in Tlaxcala, Osuna in Baja California, and Adame in Morelos). In the six states where there was change of party in the gubernatorial elections last July, all but one were states where the balance of public opinion was strongly negative. (PRI states are shown in green, PAN blue, and PRD orange.) The most common failings of governors were not fighting crime and not knowing how to govern. (Universal 9/23)
A BGC-Excelsior national poll showed that respondents disapproved of the work that the Senate was doing by a margin of 66%-28%, with the disapproval rate rising through the sexenio. (The Chamber of Deputies shows a similar pattern.) Among the major parties, none are seen as being disposed to work for agreements across party lines. The PRI had been more favorably viewed, but lost its advantage over the past year. “In general terms, more and more persons think that to have a President whose party doesn’t have a majority in Congress damages democracy because it is difficult to reach agreements. … However, by 55% to 39%, they [also] think that it is beneficial if the party in power doesn’t have a majority in Congress because issues are discussed more deeply.” (Excelsior 9/13)
The campaigns close on June 30th, with the vote on July 4. Just a handful of states have close gubernatorial races. Columnist Leo Zuckermann writes, “It’s possible that the PRI will win each and every one of the 12 governorships that are in play. … There exists doubt in only four states. In all the rest, everything indicates that the [PRI] will win handily. … But they could also lose between one and four races, three in places where there are alliances between the PAN and parties of the left. Should there be a triumph of the alliances in Oaxaca, Sinaloa or Puebla, I believe that the PAN and PRD party leaders will save face. Should they pull out a victory in two of those gubernatorial races, they will celebrate with champagne and begin to prepare an alliance to contest the State of Mexico [governorship] in 2011.” The last Mitofsky polls before the election show the PRI leading by 6-10% in all four contested states, but with substantial undecided votes. (Excelsior 6/25, consulta.com)
With three weeks to go before the July 4 elections, the PRI has solid leads in most of the 12 gubernatorial races, based on GCE and Mitofsky polls from late May and early June. In the nine states that it currently controls, the PRI is being seriously challenged only in Oaxaca and (perhaps) Puebla. According to pollster GCE, Eviel Pérez has a 37%-32% lead over PAN-PRD coalition candidate Gabino Cué in Oaxaca, but 28% are undecided. In Puebla, Javier López has 47% compared to panista Rafael Moreno Valle’s 38%. In the other seven states, PRI candidates have double digit leads over the PAN challengers.