Doubts are emerging about President Peña Nieto’s ability to keep control of the succession process, given the abysmal polling of the potential PRI candidates for the 2018 presidential election.
Until now, almost all have assumed that EPN would pick his successor using the “dedazo,” the big finger, that PRI presidents in the pre-democratic era exercised to indicate their successor. Indeed, EPN has maintained iron control of gubernatorial nominations through his term.
An anonymous PRI official told columnist Salvador García Soto,
We have to tell President Peña that the method for picking gubernatorial candidates until now won’t work to solve the succession issue inside the PRI. The president needs to innovate, open the process, and let many aspirants run in an open manner to help the PRI reposition itself in an adverse environment in which the other parties and candidates have big advantages.
According to García Soto, Presidencia’s last internal poll shows that all the potential PRI candidates finish a distant third against AMLO and any PAN candidate. The best positioned of the PRIistas is Health Secretary José Narro. In a trial ballot, Narro captures 19% of the vote, AMLO 29.6%, and Margarita Zavala of the PAN 24.3%.
These PRI dissidents are promoting the idea that the PRI National Assembly, scheduled to meet at the beginning of August, should decide the methods for selecting candidates for the 2018 races.
A poll carried out by the Chamber of Deputies, which is currently debating the new internal security law, showed that almost 80% of those surveyed supported giving legal authorization for the Army and the Marines to fight organized crime.
The survey of 900 persons carried out by the Chamber’s Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion also showed some clear limitations on the powers they approved the military having.
Those surveyed said the military should:
- Be able to put down demonstrations using force: 74% NO
- Be able to carry out communications surveillance or collect personal information: 55% NO
- Be able to carry out criminal investigations: 61% YES
- Be able to take criminal complaints and testimony of criminal acts: 62% YES
The poll also showed in stark terms the difference between public confidence in the Army and the Marines lack of trust in local and state police forces, and even the Federal Police.
Reported in Milenio.
A new Reforma poll shows the three principal contenders for Governor of the State of Mexico to be essentially tied, not including the 26% of those surveyed who are undecided.
79% say they prefer a change of governing party (the PRI has never lost control of the state), and 41% say they would never vote for the PRI — compared to 14% and 8% rejecting Morena and the PAN, respectively.
On the other hand, some 53% approve the performance of the outgoing PRI governor, Eruviel Ávila.
PRI candidate Del Mazo scores highest on the positive attribute of experience (31%) while Delfina Gómez of Morena scores highest on ‘closeness to the people’ (23%). Del Mazo also scores highest on the negative attributes of ‘steal more'(36%) and ‘govern for the powerful (40%).
For the first time, a major poll showed Morena — the party of Andrés Manuel López Obrador — rising to the top spot in preferences for the 2018 presidential election.
The Reforma poll gave Morena 27%, up 5% since December. (The poll results are adjusted for the 25% of respondents who didn’t answer or had no preference.)
Q: “If the Presidential election were today, for which party would you vote for President?”
The January 1 gasoline price hikes have crushed whatever residual popularity the government had. The latest Reforma poll showed Peña Nieto’s approval rating cut in half to a mere 12% in just one month and a corresponding increase in his disapproval rating.
Q: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Enrique Peña Nieto is doing his work as President?”
59% of those surveyed said the gasoline price hikes had affected them “a lot” and another 26% said “some.” Three out of five said they held the President responsible for the state of the economy.
A poll carried out by El Universal of the approval ratings of the governors of each state showed the wide range of opinion across the nation. The four most popular governors (led by Ortega Bernés of Campeche—86% approval vs 14% disapproval) and the least popular (Ulises Ruíz of Oaxaca—22% vs 77%) were all from the PRI. Three of the least popular were from the PAN (Ortiz in Tlaxcala, Osuna in Baja California, and Adame in Morelos). In the six states where there was change of party in the gubernatorial elections last July, all but one were states where the balance of public opinion was strongly negative. (PRI states are shown in green, PAN blue, and PRD orange.) The most common failings of governors were not fighting crime and not knowing how to govern. (Universal 9/23)
A BGC-Excelsior national poll showed that respondents disapproved of the work that the Senate was doing by a margin of 66%-28%, with the disapproval rate rising through the sexenio. (The Chamber of Deputies shows a similar pattern.) Among the major parties, none are seen as being disposed to work for agreements across party lines. The PRI had been more favorably viewed, but lost its advantage over the past year. “In general terms, more and more persons think that to have a President whose party doesn’t have a majority in Congress damages democracy because it is difficult to reach agreements. … However, by 55% to 39%, they [also] think that it is beneficial if the party in power doesn’t have a majority in Congress because issues are discussed more deeply.” (Excelsior 9/13)