Doubts are emerging about President Peña Nieto’s ability to keep control of the succession process, given the abysmal polling of the potential PRI candidates for the 2018 presidential election.
Until now, almost all have assumed that EPN would pick his successor using the “dedazo,” the big finger, that PRI presidents in the pre-democratic era exercised to indicate their successor. Indeed, EPN has maintained iron control of gubernatorial nominations through his term.
An anonymous PRI official told columnist Salvador García Soto,
We have to tell President Peña that the method for picking gubernatorial candidates until now won’t work to solve the succession issue inside the PRI. The president needs to innovate, open the process, and let many aspirants run in an open manner to help the PRI reposition itself in an adverse environment in which the other parties and candidates have big advantages.
According to García Soto, Presidencia’s last internal poll shows that all the potential PRI candidates finish a distant third against AMLO and any PAN candidate. The best positioned of the PRIistas is Health Secretary José Narro. In a trial ballot, Narro captures 19% of the vote, AMLO 29.6%, and Margarita Zavala of the PAN 24.3%.
These PRI dissidents are promoting the idea that the PRI National Assembly, scheduled to meet at the beginning of August, should decide the methods for selecting candidates for the 2018 races.
A new Reforma poll shows the three principal contenders for Governor of the State of Mexico to be essentially tied, not including the 26% of those surveyed who are undecided.
79% say they prefer a change of governing party (the PRI has never lost control of the state), and 41% say they would never vote for the PRI — compared to 14% and 8% rejecting Morena and the PAN, respectively.
On the other hand, some 53% approve the performance of the outgoing PRI governor, Eruviel Ávila.
PRI candidate Del Mazo scores highest on the positive attribute of experience (31%) while Delfina Gómez of Morena scores highest on ‘closeness to the people’ (23%). Del Mazo also scores highest on the negative attributes of ‘steal more'(36%) and ‘govern for the powerful (40%).
In a major boost to Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s consolidation of his control over Mexico’s political Left, the leader of the PRD in the Senate, Miguel Barbosa, endorsed AMLO for president. (The PRD Central Committee demanded Barbosa’s resignation, but he has so far refused.) Columnist José Rubenstein notes that the PRD is disintegrating. The party’s parliamentary group had 22 Senate seats at the beginning of 2016, and defections have reduced the number to 12. And if Barbosa and his allies leave, the PRD would be down to seven senators.
Posted in Elections, Parties
The principal candidates for the June 3, 2017 gubernatorial election in the State of Mexico – the home of President Peña Nieto – were ratified by their respective parties:
- PRI: Alfredo del Mazo, son of a former governor and EPN cousin, and currently a federal deputy;
- PAN: Josefina Vasquez Mota, the party’s presidential candidate in 2012 and former cabinet minister;.
- Morena: Delfina Gómez, a long-time teacher who served as mayor of Texcoco from 2012-2015 and federal deputy.
(The other major party, the PRD, cancelled an internal election and is yet to announce a candidate. The PRD has been hurt by massive defections to Morena, and will not be competitive.)
The State of Mexico election promises to bring the full weight of the national political parties to bear and set the scene for the 2018 presidential and congressional elections. The results, besides determining control of Mexico’s most populous state, will have a major influence on national party politics and the selection of the presidential candidates.
A report released by the Mexico State Justice Ministry on the 922 killings of women that took place between January 2005 and August 2010 essentially blamed the victims. The report attributed the killings to: “Risks that some women place themselves in: consuming drugs, alcohol, or inhalants; working in bars where they mix with clients; going out alone at late hours; … becoming romantically involved with partners whom they don’t know well; being involved with multiple partners at the same time; belonging to youth gangs; belonging to criminal gangs or having relationships with gang members.”
The state PRI blocked calls for an investigation into the killings, which was condemned by both federal Secretary of Government Fernando Blake and the PRD. PRD Senator Claudia Corichi said, “Would undertaking investigations to unmask the assassins be such a dent in the armor of [Governor] Peña Nieto? What a shame that [the PRI] hides behind the argument that this is a politicized issue.” (Reforma 1/13)
On today’s legal deadline, the Chamber of Deputies appears set to approve the expenditure law for 2011. The Finance Commission unanimously approved the expenditure proposal at 2am. The President’s request for increases for the security agencies, including the funds to create the unified police forces, were approved. The principal cause of delay in approving the expenditure package had been negotiations to allocate funds for highway construction between the different states. (Excelsior 11/15)
The Chamber of Deputies recessed for the long holiday weekend without electing three new board members for the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), by the legal deadline of October 30th. According to press reports, the PAN and PRI leadership had agreed to give two of the vacancies to PRI-approved nominees and one to a PAN-approved nominee, freezing out the PRD. The supposed deal was attacked not only by the PRD but also by a number of Deputies in both the PAN and PRI. (Such a deal in 2003 contributed to the IFE’s loss of credibility as an impartial arbiter in the wake of the 2006 presidential election.) The vote is now scheduled for Wednesday, after Congress returns from the Day of the Dead holiday. The three IFE board members to be elected to 9-year terms will be selected from a list of 17 candidates already approved as meeting the legal requirements for the position. (Reforma 10/29)