While AMLO has been using his visits to Mexican communities in the U.S. to portray a statesman-like image, he was effectively derailed by protesters in Queens, New York on Monday. Supporters and family members of the 43 students killed in Iguala in 2014 interrupted a town-hall type meeting, accusing AMLO (correctly) of close ties with the then mayor of Iguala and then governor of Guerrero at the time. (Both politicians were members of the PRD, and were politically backed by AMLO and his supporters.) In the face of the disruption, AMLO cancelled the rest of the Queens event; much of the rest of his agenda in NYC and Washington was hit by winter storm “Stella.” The images of the protesters shutting AMLO down is about the only impact his visit had in Mexico.
Foreign Minister Videgaray testimony in the Senate 2/28 included several red lines and must-haves.
U.S. immigration law and enforcement
- A strictly U.S. domestic issue, and Mexico will not get involved in an internal U.S. debate, BUT:
- Mexico will not accept any non-Mexican deportees.
- Mexico will protect the human rights of Mexicans in the U.S., and pursue any violations in international forums
- There needs to be continued cooperation and coordination on border security matters; threats and insults need to cease
- No militarization of the border
- Mexicans leaving the U.S. (both voluntarily and involuntarily) must keep their rights to Social Security earned
- U.S. and Mexico need to cooperate on Central America
We will not negotiate the Free Trade Agreement from the defendant’s dock. Any negotiation between the parties must start from the premise that this has been an agreement that has generated important benefits for all three parties.
- Mexico will undertake the trade negotiations, “without pause, but without haste”
- No tariffs or quotas.
- Negotiation should include mechanisms to support rising wages for Mexican workers, so the “production model” isn’t based on cheap labor.
- Construction of the wall is a hostile act, and Mexico will not collaborate in any way; but it is a sovereign matter for the U.S.
- Mexico will pursue any violation of international law in international forums.
U.S. Tax regime
- Mexico must be prepared to change its own tax regime if changes to US tax law affect Mexican interests or the economic competitiveness.
Drug trafficking / cartels
- U.S. must assume its responsibility to reduce demand, and stop the flow of guns and money.
- No measures that restrict the flow of remittances or increase their cost.
Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray appeared before the full Senate to present outline the government’s posture on the negotiations with the U.S. across the full range of issues. He and the Senate agreed that they would prepare a document “to regulate and delimit” the negotiations, to be signed by both the administration and the Senate. The Senate leadership said they would have a draft to discuss when Videgaray returns on 3/7.
The principal points Videgaray made are here.
The major question is whether Mexico is willing to negotiate trade issues on a stand-alone basis, or will insist on an all-or-nothing “integral” negotiation, where trade, migration, the border, cooperation on security, and drug trafficking are all on the table. The former offers the prospect of a revised NAFTA in less than a year. The latter would ensure that nothing gets resolved before both countries move into full election mode in 2018.
The Mexican government is operating on the assumption that NAFTA negotiations will begin in June, although the Trump administration has not yet given the required 90-day notice to Congress.
Foreign Secretary Videgaray termed the meetings held by him and Government Secretary Miguel Angel Osorio Chong with U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson and Homeland Security Secretary Kelly as “frank.”
This visit occurs a complex moment in the relationship of the two countries. Among Mexicans, there is a preoccupation and irritation with what they perceive as policies of the U.S. that could be damaging to them.
Today we discussed different issues on the agenda, knowing that this is a process that will be long and not necessarily easy. Today we took important steps in the right direction. Undoubtedly, we have some coincidences. The first of these is the need to keep working and having dialogue in an uninterrupted manner.
A visibly angry President Peña Nieto gave a very short TV address tonight, after Trump’s signing of executive orders and an ABC News interview
calling again for Mexico to pay for the border wall. A translation of EPN’s address
Today, the President of the United States signed two executive orders related to our country: one to implement immigration measures and another to extend the wall at the border.
In response, I have ordered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to strengthen measures to protect our compatriots.
The 50 Mexican Consulates in the United States will become authentic advocates for the rights of migrants.
Our communities are not alone. The Mexican Government will provide them with the legal advice that guarantees the protection they need.
I call on legislators and civil society organizations to join efforts to back and support them.
Where there is a Mexican migrant at risk who needs our support, there we must be, there our country must be.
I regret and reject the decision of the United States to continue building a wall that, for years, far from uniting us, divides us.
Mexico does not believe in walls.
I have said it over and over again: Mexico will not pay for any wall.
These executive orders also occur at a time when our country is initiating talks to negotiate the new rules of cooperation, trade, investment, security and migration in the North American region.
This negotiation is very important for the strength, certainty and future of our economy and our society.
As President of the Republic, I fully assume the responsibility of defending and protecting the interests of Mexico and Mexicans.
It is my duty to face the problems and face the challenges.
Based on the final report of the Mexican officials currently in Washington, and after consultation with the leadership of the Senate and the National Conference of Governors, I will have to make decisions on the next steps.
Mexico offers and demands respect, as the fully sovereign Nation that we are.
Mexico endorses its friendship with the people of the United States and its willingness to reach agreements with its government — agreements in favor of Mexico and Mexicans.
After a long hiatus, I’ve decided to restart this blog on Mexican politics.
Why now? The current moment in Mexico is the most critical in decades:
- Weak, lame-duck President without a game plan for final two years of his term;
- Political fragmentation, with the next president likely to be elected with under 30% of the vote;
- Inability of the political system to address drug violence and public corruption;
- Country’s (and government’s) financial position still solid, but slipping;
- Chronic slow economic growth;
And, of course,
- Donald Trump’s repeated attacks on NAFTA, Mexican migrants in the U.S., and—indeed—the dignity of the Mexican people.
While I am an optimist at heart about Mexico, today for the first time in many years the risk exists that the country will take a sharp turn in the wrong direction, putting at risk decades of progress in economic modernization and integration into the world economy, tens of billions of dollars of investment, the advent of democratic governance, and close, constructive relations with the United States.
In a long expected change, long-time panista Cecilia Romero resigned as head of the National Migration Institute. The deaths of the 72 Central American migrants at the hands of the drug cartels last month forced the change, although she has long been seen as ineffective.