A new quarterly poll by GEA-ISA for March 2017 provides good insight into Mexican political perceptions. While the bottom line for candidate preferences are similar to other polls, following are some of the highlights that come from a more comprehensive survey.
Net favorable/unfavorable ratings of presidential contenders
- Ricardo Anaya (PAN) is the only potential candidate with a net positive approval rating: +1%.
- Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a net negative rating of only -1%. This is very different from his previous two runs for the presidency.
- All others have large net unfavorable ratings. Politicians are a very discredited breed in Mexico.
The performance of the Enrique Peña Nieto government
- The evaluation worsened along every dimension surveyed, compared to both Nov. 2016 and March 2016. Only 19% approve of his performance as President (down 25% in one year), and 77% disapprove.
- His greatest accomplishment as President: Nothing (43%). His biggest mistake: the gasoline price increases (18% ).
Support for the structural reforms enacted under EPN
- Only the education reforms (53% say maintain vs 39% revoke) have majority support.
- The least popular is the energy reform (20% maintain vs 61% revoke). This is undoubtedly affected by the gasoline price hikes in January.
- Opinion on the telecoms reforms (41% vs 42%) is basically neutral.
Party positive/negative perceptions and recognition
- All the parties are net negative, with Morena being the least bad (-10%), followed by the PAN (-12%) and PRI (-31%).
- A surprising 35% don’t recognize Morena; the PAN, PRI, and PRD are universally known.
- By a small margin, those surveyed think the PAN would govern better, but Morena has steadily risen to almost match the PAN. The PRI has been on a long slide down.
Position on common candidates among the parties
- More than 60% reject having PRI-PAN, PAN-PRD, or PRI-PRD candidates in common.
The full poll results are here.