Pre-election polls: Other observations

Other points:

  • The pollsters who tried to measure the null vote and voter abstention estimate that these numbers will not be dramatically higher than the historical range for similar elections.
  • At least one party (PSD) will certainly lose its registration. Potentially two other parties could fail to make the 2% cut (PANAL, Convergencia). The last election law reform was clearly designed to winnow the ranks of the minor parties.
  • The phenomenon of the election could well be the Green Party, PVEM. Through clever marketing, the championing of the death penalty, the overt support of the TV broadcasters, and its possible role as the swing bloc in the Chamber, the PVEM will probably emerge with a greater weight in the next Congress than its national numbers suggest. The fact that many of the PVEM candidates have ties to the broadcasters has not gone unnoticed.

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