Pre-election polls: final take

Final pre election polls

Final pre election polls

The ‘quiet period’ for the elections began today. All the major polling shops published at the top of the week the results of nationwide surveys taken in the final days of June. Most pollsters also estimated the number of congressional seats that would result from their voting estimates.

The majority of the polls point to a comfortable 5-6% PRI margin in the nationwide vote for the Chamber of Deputies. All the polls show that the PRI has maintained or increased its lead since the May surveys. This median outcome would be enough to give the PRI a substantial plurality in the 500 seat Chamber, but not a majority.

Potential distribution of seats

Potential distribution of seats

Several of the polls point to alternative outcomes:

  • GEA-ISA shows the PRI and PAN essentially tied within the margin of error, though they no longer show the PAN ahead, as they did in May.
  • GCE and El Universal give the PRI a large enough share of the vote that the tri-colored party could potentially have a majority of the seats in the Chamber, either on its own or together with the Green Party.

Sources:GEA-ISA, GCE, Mitofsky, Reforma, Universal, Parametria.

(note: in accordance with electoral law, the results of the surveys have been removed from the web sites until after the elections. Contact Zemi if you would like to receive copies of the file archives.)

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