Final polls: Slight advantage PRI

Mitofsky Congressional poll

Mitofsky Congressional poll

Mitofsky and GEA-ISA have published their final polls before the cutoff in opinion polling dictated by the election law.

The Mitofsky survey points to a PRI win by 5.2%, up from the 4.1% estimated in May. Mitofsky  estimates that the PRI will capture about 222 seats in the 500 seat Chamber of Deputies — with a minimum of 210 seats and a maximum of 234 — still well short of a majority. Of the minor parties, the PSD seems certain to fail to reach the 2% threshold of the national vote required to keep their party registration, while the PANAL and Convergencia hover around the 2% mark.

GEA-ISA congressional poll

GEA-ISA congressional poll

The GEA-ISA national survey shows the two top parties essentially tied within the margin of error. In May this survey gave a 1.5% advantage to the PAN, while it now shows the PRI up by 2.4%. GEA-ISA estimates that the PRI will capture 212 seats in the Chamber.  This survey also estimates that three parties — PANAL, PSD, and Convergencia will fail to reach the 2% threshold of the national vote to keep their party registration.

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